A.J. an O?

Two weeks ago it was Jason Schmidt. Now A.J. Burnett is the buzz name on the rumor mill, a power right-hander who could make the difference in a race. (But apparently not the NL East, unless the Marlins wind up making a run the next couple of weeks and hang onto him.)

Burnett’s name has been linked to several contenders, but the Orioles appear to have been most aggressive, with their greatest advantage being that they might also take on Mike Lowell’s hefty salary. The O’s could definitely use him, but so could the Red Sox — which is part of the reason why the Sox have come in with an offer that reportedly includes Bronson Arroyo. Also interested: the White Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees — and probably more than that.

A free agent after the season, Burnett is perfect fodder for July trade talks, and the Marlins are wise to shop him around as long as possible. Says here the O’s make the most sense at the moment, especially if they take on Lowell.

What’s left? Plenty

It’s on.

Thank you, Rockies, A’s and Nationals. You too, Sox. Finally, some trades.

The Rox and A’s did their two deals and the Nats and Sox did their part Wednesday, the only day without baseball all season long (ha, guess not). Now there’s a better sense of what’s coming down the pike here. These were all more than minor moves yet not blockbusters, and they give out a vibe that there could be some bigger moves to come. There are plenty of big names out there.

One thing that really stood out from all the moves was that big lefty Joe Kennedy went to Oakland and the A’s are saying he’ll start out in the bullpen. With 10 relief appearances and 115 starts on his resume, that’s enough to make one wonder what, if anything, the A’s might do before July 31. The knee-jerk reaction is now Barry Zito, at 27 also a big lefty but with more success and more money coming to him, is that much more vulnerable. The Padres would love to get him, but the A’s maintain they’re not looking to move him. Still, this gives one pause to at least think about it, doesn’t it? If they ever do it, it might be now, as long as they feel they can cover that spot in the rotation adequately and receive big pieces of the future who can also help for their suddenly rejuvenated present. Then again, they’ve enjoyed having two big lefties in the rotation before.

Anyway, it certainly seems like lefties are a big commodity in this season’s trade derby. Kennedy’s been dealt. Billy Wagner’s more a possibility with each Phillies loss. Seattle’s Eddie Guardado, Jamie Moyer and Ron Villone could be out there. The Pirates’ Mark Redman is very much out there. Al Leiter could be on his way out of Florida.

That’s just the lefties, folks. It’s getting hot in herre. (Did that just come off my fingers? What a dork.)

See? Told you Billy Beane would get something rolling, though it was Eric Byrnes not Mark Kotsay that was subtracted from the A’s outfield.

Seeing stars

Greetings from Detroit, home of the All-Star Game at Comerica Field and late-night Gyros in nearby Greektown. It’s been a busy few days already, and the stars haven’t even hit the field for the Midsummer Classic. While this isn’t a gathering place for baseball’s GMs to crank out the deals like Bobby Abreu cranks out homers, the rumor mill continues to churn during the "break." A little slower, to be sure, but it’ll get rolling again later this week as we head toward July 31.

Among the stars, a couple of lefties emerged in some reports as possible trade targets in the next few weeks — Kenny Rogers and Billy Wagner. The only other All-Star who really seems out there is Tampa Bay’s Danys Baez, but that figures with the Rays owning the worst record in baseball. Rogers or Wagner, however, would be blockbuster material.

With Rogers, a rift with management that began in the spring widened this summer and, he says, fueled his camera-bashing session. That makes an extension sound impossible, but the Rangers are still very much in the race, and Rogers is by far their best starter. They’d have to get a top starter back, and that’s a tough assignment. Seems to make more sense for the Rangers to hang onto him.

On the other hand, Wagner seems like much more of a possibility. He’s talking his way right out of Philly, and if the Phillies do decide to become sellers — and they’re very close — then Wagner’s definitely a guy contending teams would want. That’s one to watch.

OK, back to the stars. The trades will come soon enough.

Begging time

Please, please do something, guys. Come on, give us a deal. Enough rumors. We want deals.

It can get that way around this time, when the non-waiver deadline sits three weeks (and a day) away, and the rumors have started their summer swirl. But there’s plenty of time for the sellers to hold out for more and buyers to shop around, so it’s not soup yet. Patience. The deals will come. Maybe.

Maybe this just isn’t a blockbuster year, or maybe something nobody’s even considered will blow us all away. A year ago at this time, who knew the Red Sox would trade Nomar and the Dodgers would flip one-third of their first-place club? At the moment, it’s a whole lot of neutral and just your deals that maybe affect the bottom of the roster. The buyers are turning up their noses and sellers are asking for the world. Once things sort out after the All-Star Game, it’ll turn up a notch.

Thought we might have had one with Preston Wilson going to the Nationals from the Rockies for RHP Zach Day and OF J.J. Davis, reported first by The Sporting News. But that didn’t pan out — yet. Money’s going to be the hangup on this one, how much of the prorated remainder of Wilson’s $12.5 million is each side willing to pick up. Plus, Wilson has limited no-trade rights that include the Nationals, for now at least.

Details, details. That’s always the catch. A Wilson deal will happen eventually, maybe even to the Nationals. And maybe that’s the linchpin to open up the gates a little bit.

Preston, change-o

If there’s a guy who should already have his bags packed, it’s Preston Wilson. As we head into July , there are several suitors for the center fielder — the Cubs, Orioles and Rangers among them, and perhaps the Yankees.

What’s keeping the Rockies from making something happen? Well, for one, they are and should be letting the market play itself out a bit. But they can’t go into this thinking they’ll get a lot out of him, which seems to be the case. The Nationals reportedly already turned down a deal in which the Rockies asked for RHP Zach Day and CF Ryan Church — can’t really blame them, either. That’s too much to ask.

The Rockies seem to think that if they only unload Wilson’s salary without also picking up a couple of Major Leaguers, then a  trade would be a failure. Much worse, no Wilson trade would be a failure, because he can’t help this year and there’s a market for him. Wise as it is to wait it out a little bit, the Rox need to make something happen with Wilson at some point relatively soon.

A designated hitter?

The market for Bret Boone sounds like a lot of lookers but not a lot of buyers. Designated for assignment by the Mariners on Sunday, Boonie’s out there for the taking. The Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, Twins and probably a few others have been mentioned as possible suitors. But it sounds like nobody’s leaping to make a deal.

Designating a player for assignment puts all the cards on the table, and you have to be willing to walk away with the money on the table if you’re the Mariners.
The Yankees did the designated thing with veteran relievers Paul Quantrill and Mike Stanton — and wound up trading Quantrill to the Padres. Boone’s $8.5 million salary makes it a little trickier on the trade front, though. Sounds like John Olerud all over again.

You know the M’s would have to pick that money up anyway in a trade, but they’d just like to get something out of it. They  were left holding the bag with Olerud last year, and he went on to help the Yankees essentially on Seattle’s dime.

Says here Boone’s still a guy who could help somebody in a pennant race. It’s just not clear at this point that anyone’s feeling the urgency enough to be willing to give up anything to ensure they get him, content to wait till he’s a free agent. GM Bill Bavasi has his hands full trying to unload Boone now.

About Schmidt

With the moments ticking down to first pitch in San Diego on Sunday, some folks in Chicago were paying very close attention.

The buzz about the White Sox picking up Jason Schmidt hit a crescendo as he approached his start. Would he be scratched? Are the Sox that close to acquiring another ace for their stud rotation? Chet Coppock of Sporting News Radio in Chicago was reporting Sunday that the Sox were close to making a deal for Schmidt. No deal came to pass before or directly after Sunday’s game, a relatively lackluster performance by the struggling ace right-hander.

But it was good buzz, and it’s worth wondering: Are Schmidt’s days in SF numbered?

Giants GM Brian Sabean has said Schmidt’s not being considered as trade bait, though in the next breath he says that everything depends on how the team is competing. Even though they remain afloat in the primordial ooze the NL West has become, the Giants are 10 games out and 12 games under .500 with Barry Bonds’ return still undetermined. Teams are clearly interested in Schmidt — both Soxes, the Orioles, the Yankees and Rangers have been mentioned. Schmidt has a $10.5 million club option for 2006, and this might be a good time for the Giants to get something for him and use that money to replace him. Let someone else bank on him returning to his 2002-2004 form.

It’d be a white flag the Giants don’t seem willing to fly — yet. If or when they do, Schmidt’s the most valuable guy they have to deal.

A Harbinger Deal

Ah, the joys of covering ball in July. Every once in a while, you wake up, look at your competition and say, "D’oh!" Sometimes it’s a big "D’oh!" and other times it’s a smaller "D’oh!" This one was on the small side, but still qualified.

The Padres, covered by yours truly last night,  made a trade with the Yankees late last night that would send lefty Darrell May and right-hander Tim Redding to the Yankees for Paul Quantrill. The trade was iirst reported in the San Diego Union-Tribune and the North County Times.

No, this isn’t the deal that sends shivers up your spine — unless you’re the guy who covered the team the night before and said "D’oh!" when you saw it in the paper. (Should have known … Redding got called into Bochy’s office and May was seen on the cellphone.)

This is what you’d have to call a Harbinger Trade. The Padres’ bullpen isn’t an area of need but rather of strength, and this certainly doesn’t solve the Yankees’ need in center field. You have to figure that one or more likely both of these teams will be doing bigger things than just this.

The Padres already signed Pedro Astacio off the scrap heap and he’ll likely get a shot, but they still have some rotation questions with Adam Eaton’s middle finger still not healed. May and Redding are both headed to Triple-A to begin with, and it’s hard to imagine that either of the two failed No. 5 starters for the Padres is being looked at as a difference-maker for the Yankees.

Who knows? This might not even be the last trade between these two teams. But it certainly makes you think these are two teams looking to be active.

Sheff’s special: Yummy stuff

Ah, yes. Leave it to the Big Apple to get things stirred up. But this Gary Sheffield deal isn’t going to happen, at least not to the Mets and probably not to anybody.

That’s not a knock on the reports, which came out first in the New York Post and the Bergen Record. The Mets did make a play for Sheffield, offering a package headed by Mike Cameron. But as of Wednesday it’s clear the Yankees’ interest in a Sheffield-Cameron deal isn’t mutual, especially since word is the Mets wanted to throw in Tom Glavine or Kaz Matsui, too. (The Yankees have enough old, expensive pitchers, and they already have the good Matsui.)

Sheffield’s response to this or any deal, for that matter, is classic Sheff. You could take it back to when the Padres were getting ready to deal him to Boston in ’93, and he didn’t hold back then, either. Hey, an angry Sheff can be a good thing, as long as he’s playing where he wants to play. Yankee Stadium is where he wants to play.

One NL baseball source says Sheffield’s name is out there and the Yankees would like to move him. But the reality of the situation is that as much as the Yankees need a center fielder — as in, Cameron, Mark Kotsay, Juan Pierre or Preston Wilson — it’s more likely they’d do it via prospects, either their own lower-level ones or via a three-way deal.

All the while, the Yanks are saying publicly that they want to improve from within. But that’s not going to cut it, not this year, not where they stand. They’ll do something, just not this. Still, that’s yummy stuff.

Welcome to Reality Check 2005

Every year it’s the same. Every year it’s a little bit different. You know, kind of like baseball itself. The countdown to the July 31 trade deadline has started, and it’s only a matter of time before something comes down. Meanwhile, a whole lot of nothing will be out there, and only a few rumors will really come true.

The names are already trickling out, and July’s not even here yet. In our hearts, we all know that pretty much all of the names will be listed on the same rosters come Aug. 1 that they’re on now.

But that doesn’t make the annual trip around the rumor mill any less fun, does it? Speculation, rumor, innuendo — it’s all part of the game.

At some point, somebody has to separate the fantasy from the reality, the fiction from the truth, the hooey from the dealio. And that’s what we’re here for at the Reality Check.

Fifteen years into a baseball writing career, this is a first — blogdom. (To paraphrase sports talk radio: Longtime writer, first-time blogger.) This as good a forum as any to get a blog career going, because there will be plenty of fodder over the next several weeks before the non-waiver deadline to take some of the, uh, stuff that’s being thrown up against the wall, give it a gander and evaluate it as possible or just plain silly. Hence the name, the Reality Check.

Now let’s remember: This is just one guy’s take, with a little help from baseball execs, a little knowledge of the national baseball media circles and a whole lot of insight from our crack staff of beat writers here at MLB.com. This isn’t gospel, just semi-educated conjecture based on the best information available.

Here’s a quick take on where we stand at the moment:

What’s the same about this year is that right around the first of July the sellers are asking way too much and the buyers are all looking for the same thing — a frontline starter or a big bat. What’s a little different than last year, at least, is that we don’t have a deal yet, certainly nothing like last year’s three-way Carlos Beltran she-bang. So it’s wait-and-see mode for a bit.

Frankly, there’s not a lot out there so far. But the one guy you always have to keep an eye on is Billy Beane. For the moment, forget about Barry Zito or Eric Chavez — you still have to look at them as the cornerstones of the future in Oakland. Think Mark Kotsay, if anyone. He’s got a player option year coming up, and extension talks aren’t going anywhere yet. The Yankees are said to be interested, but they’ve got diddly to give a team like the A’s. That said, Beane’s the master of the three-way deal, so don’t rule it out. The Cubs might throw a line in that water, too.

See? There’s a little somethin’-somethin’ to get us started. No real basis. Just a little rumor, speculation and innuendo. Fun.

Listen, nobody — not even the GMs who know more than the rest of us — knows what’ll happen before July 31, or after with guys being sent through waivers. The stuff’s only starting to be flung, and the phones are only starting to buzz around baseball’s front offices. The fun’s only beginning. But there will be plenty of rumors to come, and this here Reality Check is ready to roll.